When creating a forecast first ask yourself whether you are forecasting One Thing or Multiple Things. It’s not always clear which of these situations you are in but the approach you take to creating the forecast will differ significantly. This post will help you to figure out which approach to take.
When forecasting Multiple Things the best approach to take is to use a Monte Carlo forecast. This approach creates a statistically significant probability distribution of delivery on various dates based on thousands of simulations using historical throughput data.